The Fuel of Life

 

Crisis, What Crisis?

Jim Callaghan was plagued by the suggestion that when asked about the problems troubling his government he responded ‘Crisis, What Crisis?’  Callaghan was too astute a politician to say such a thing. The words were actually the work of the Sun newspaper.  I was reminded of the phrase this week when I ran out of petrol.  It could be the slogan of the current government and provides an interesting insight into their approach to emergency management.

An excess of demand over supply for a product is a matter for the private sector.  We are content for the invisible hand of economics to work its magic.  However, when the commodity is an essential item, such as fuel, it becomes a matter of national concern.  We can’t function as a society without fuel.  Perhaps one day soon our reliance on fossil fuels will be an embarrassing part of our history, but not yet.  At the moment we see long queues at petrol stations and closed forecourts.  Doctors, nurses, teachers and other essential workers are struggling to get to work.  The thin façade of our public transport networks are exposed as being not fit for purpose.

The government’s initial approach was to deny that there was any shortage of fuel.  They pointed to stocks at refineries and depots and blamed panic buying and in doing so stoked the embers of public concern.  I wonder if they had been briefed about, or even remembered, the fuel crisis of 2000.  That situation exposed the vulnerability of our supply chains and was a progenitor of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004.  It matters not why deliveries are inhibited; we expect the government to ensure that the essentials of life are available to all.   By blaming the public they have provoked a reaction that has made the situation worse.  Some of pronouncements of ministers have invoked the covid toilet paper paradox; it’s good to have some spare but disastrous if everybody has too much.  Blame the consumer and hug the moral high ground.  But as the days pass this doesn’t wash.  We can stockpile toilet rolls in our attics and garages but there are very few opportunities for the domestic storage pf petrol.  This is about supply.  The consumer is king and can demand what they like, especially when the opportunities for stockpiling are non existent.

It is a fact of life that all crises have political aspects.  In this case I am not sure that the government saw any further than the politics.  One can almost hear last week’s conversation in Downing Street:  ‘a firm grip’,  ‘ride it out’, ‘no need to panic’, ‘strong leadership’ etc etc.  Things have changed.  Official communications now advise against using phrases such as ‘panic buying’ and the default of calling for military help has been reached.   Politics and politicians are essential components of democracy and national leadership, but political game playing is of limited utility in the middle of a crisis.  The obvious falsehood of denying that Brexit has anything to do with the shortage of tanker drivers is as helpful as the obvious falsehood that the shortage of drivers is entirely the result of leaving the EU. 

I just want enough petrol to get to work and to my next hospital appointment.

The use of the armed forces creates super media opportunities and their (small) involvement in the current situation gives the impression of ‘grip’.  Since the welcome change of posture on the use of the military in civil emergencies we have allowed the idea that ‘the army will save us’ to sink into the national psyche.  From flooding to fuel, via Covid19 and the shortage of ambulances, a false impression of having a massive  civil protection reserve, that will always be available, has been built.  Our armed services do a great job and are an essential civil support in the last resort, but they are no substitute for proper planning and provision.

Soon we will turn to learning the lessons of the last week. Hopefully this process will be conducted openly.  Some things we already know.  Fossil fuels are no longer the answer.  Public transport, including rural bus networks, must be improved so that they offer an alternative to private cars.  We must secure our supply chains, especially those that supply energy.  In this case supply chains are not about keeping businesses efficient and operating at a profit. They are about keeping the country moving and the lights on.  Complicated stuff, the like of which only governments can manage. 

This experience must influence the forthcoming national resilience strategy and encourage investment in resilience and civil protection planning and response.  The creation of a National Resilience Forum is possible a step in the right direction.  It is a shame that the emergency planning profession and the academic sector don’t have a seat at the table.  Perhaps my empty petrol tank might persuade them to reconsider.

Philip Trendall

30 September 2021

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not represent the opinion of the Scott Trendall Ltd.