A Plea for More Pessimism ..............
As a pessimist I have always felt very comfortable in the
world of emergency management. I find it
a useful starting point. I am all for
looking for the positive but not at the expense of ignoring the negative.
Against this background I was left worried by a series of
conversations last week (did I say that I also don’t like Christmas? - I am
sure that a picture is developing of what it must be like to work with me) I
was talking to practitioners about the new National Risk Register (1) and the
use of Reasonable Worst Case (RWC) methodology.
Inevitably we moved on to talking about the response to the
pandemic. Overall I got the impression
that there is a common view that Covid-19 represents the very high point of
challenge and that ‘if we can deal with this we can deal with anything’. On the basis of any risk assessment we could
be called to face things that are on an even greater scale. We have seen over 80,000 deaths in the UK
spread out over 10 months. In the case
of a new flu this could be many times bigger and we have a long way to go
before Covid-19 becomes a matter for historians. Of course there are a whole range of other
incidents (a large scale CBRN incident for example) that would create massive
challenges, and we can be called upon to face one than one thing at a time
(flooding anybody?). During 2020 the
efforts of front line, back room and scientific workers has been first
class. I am not so sure about the
structure that they work in or the capacity of the system to prepare for what
might come next. Optimism is a luxury for the general public
and blind optimism is a tool for politicians.
The 9/11 Commission summed it up in words that should be on
the wall of every Emergency Planner and Strategic Commander: “Emergency response is a product of
preparedness” (2)
A few years ago I did some work on the creation of volunteer
reserves for public services. It did not
get very far. The idea behind it was
that it is much easier to use volunteers in crises if they have been selected,
vetted and trained in advance. These
processes are remarkably cheap and the existence of a reserve provides an
insurance policy for sudden and long lasting surges in demand. At the start of the pandemic several
organisations, including police forces, started to cast around for
volunteers. Very few were actually used
and many volunteers did not receive a response to their offer of help. One might have thought that the lull during
the Summer would have seen the better establishment of volunteer reserves but this
seems to have been the exception rather than the rule and many hastily put
together projects were abandoned as being ‘not needed’. We do not know what the future might hold
and the future is never far away.
The House of Lords is to hold a Select Committee Inquiry into
Risk Assessment and Risk Planning (3) I
do not feel qualified to provide evidence but hopefully the contributions by
the Institute of Civil Protection and Emergency
Management (4) and the Emergency Planning Society (5) will inform Peers of the
strengths and weaknesses of current practice.
In the context of this blog I would just mention that I have seen many
risk assessments that function as an excuse not to take action or spend money
when everybody knows that is exactly what needs to be done. My hint is always to look at the selection
and framing of the risk and the suggested mitigation. I have also seen some pretty good risk
assessments that have informed the planning process. Risk assessments can say what you want them
to but the only way of looking at them is to assume that you are looking
backwards from the point of a post incident inquiry.
I would urge those commentators that see spare capacity and
stockpiles as wasteful to read the recent interviews with front line NHS
staff.
In the world of civil protection a healthy dose of pessimism
never goes amiss – and nor does a bit of horizon scanning backed up by good
risk assessments with the development of capability that will make a difference
when the time comes.
Of course there have been many positives to come out of this
and other crises – and many examples of incredible effort and spectacular innovation.
We should allow ourselves to be briefly heartened
and to express our gratitude. Then we
must turn back to face the gloom that is emergency planning/management
Have a happy new year, but be careful, I said this last year!
Philip Trendall
This is an edited version of a blog prepared for Scott
Trendall Ltd
Philip Trendall QPM
Scott Trendall Ltd
Notes
2.
https://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf p278
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