Ready for the Next One?

What are emergency planners doing at the moment?

The relative invisibility of this worthwhile trade has been the subject of considerable comment and debate (See for example the comments by Prof David Alexander and posts on Linkedin by members of the Emergency Planning Society).  Invisibility means only that they are working in the background without the spotlight of the media shining upon them.  But what are theses protectors of our future up to?

Well they are not sitting in their penthouse suites sipping fine vintages, counting their bonuses and planning post lockdown holidays to the Caribbean.  As a putative profession they continue to be unsung and largely deprived of the resources they need to do their jobs.  One improvement, although it is hard to generalise, is that for the moment at least, they have the ears of those who hold budgets and set strategy. This creates an opportunity that should not be missed, but this is a discussion is for another time.

Most emergency planners are still engaged in supporting the response to the pandemic and preparing for the recovery – especially at community level.  I would guess that very few are actively preparing for the next aeroplane disaster, railway accident or terrorist attack.  One immediate issue that requires the attention of professional planners is the potential for a pandemic – either a resurgence of the current one or a new one.

The temptation to see crises and crisis management as a linear situation is a strong, and one that is supported by all of those ‘phases of major incidents’ diagrams often encountered on emergency planning courses .  Of courses emergency management is a continuous process of concurrent actions.  Being ahead of the game requires foresight.  Foresight is based on risk assessment.  It is foreseeable that we may have a second wave of Covid-19 or that we may encounter the influenza pandemic that we have avoided for so long. 

The huge efforts that have gone into responding to the ongoing pandemic have given rise to experience that will form the basis of the next response.  However emergency planning fails when it relies on reproducing the variables from previous events.  One planning certainty is that the next incident will be different from the last.  Maybe slightly different and possibly completely different.  I was recently asked for some suggestions for emergency planning in this context.  I told my client, in the best traditions of consultancy, what they probably already knew:

1.       A quick debrief of what went well and what has failed in the last few months can inform (but not dictate) the future.

2.       Now is the time to ‘polish success’. For example the swift move to home working should be re-visited.  Do staff have the right facilities (chairs desks etc), are their ergonomic needs (and the duties of an employer) being met.  Is the IT stable and secure?  How would you manage without regular IT?

3.       In the light of recent experience how are stocks of essential materials (including the mundane such as stationery for use at home as well as essentials such as PPE etc)

4.       How are supply chains looking – how much ongoing contact have you with suppliers?

5.       Play ‘what if’ games internally and play them a lot.  Celebrate the fact that your organisation has risen to a tremendous challenge and confront the fact that it may need to confront an even greater one. 

What if the next the wave occurs in the winter – what difference will the cold and lack of light make? (I think about this one every time I queue outside Sainsburys).  Imagine being a member of staff working from home in winter when home is a grotty flat in an inner city.  What can you do about this?

What if the next wave kills a lot more of your people or make a lot more sick?  How will your organisation survive?

What if the government no longer offers the current levels of financial support?  Emergency planning includes financial planning.

What if something else happens?  Is your pandemic planning increasing your flexibility (and your resilience) or are you putting all your crisis ready eggs in one planning basket?

&c &c

6.       Talk to your customers, stakeholder and partners (and try and have an idea of the difference between them).

7.       Some public sector agencies have made use of retired staff/officers.  Planning for this is best done in advance.  Now is the time to develop a reserve to deal with an event bigger than the one we are living through.

8.       Continue to engage with your staff and let them know what you are planning.  Say thank you to them for what they have done.  Remember the incredible back room efforts (never have IT departments deserved so much praise for example).  Don’t forget your emergency planners – they may have saved lives, they may have saved your organisation.

 Some of your staff may be well rested, others may be exhausted – this is a factor as we approach the next crisis.  As a group emergency planners are pretty worn out.  Under resourced, they emerged from the ‘flooding season’ to confront the biggest challenge the nation has seen for decades.  One thing that emergency planners need in the future is more resources.  We need more emergency planners throughout the public and private sectors.  If you want high quality planning that is based on good risk assessments and is tested in exercises then this has to be paid for.  We are about to enter into a new period of recession and austerity.  In the middle of this we must find a way of paying for a planning infrastructure that matches the will of agencies to be prepared and to work together.  To do this efficiently a new structure for emergency preparedness is required, one that recognises the contribution of good planning to the resilience of our organisation, communities and society.

Philip Trendall

8^th June 2020

This blog originally appeared on:  https://scott-trendall.blogspot.com/ .  The views expressed are those of the author and do not purport to represent the views of any client of Scott Trendall Ltd.

Scott Trendall Ltd provides consultancy and training in the fields of civil protection, emergency management and counter terrorism.